By David Rogers. BOONE, N.C. — At first glance, it may seem irrelevant for a sports-focused publication to have a report on economic circumstances, but from the cost of officiating crews to the cost of team transportation expenses, the cost of admission tickets to games and much more, the economy means a lot to sports and its competitions. That’s why High Country Sports was eager to attend the 2023 Economic Kickoff Luncheon on Jan. 19, produced jointly by the Blowing Rock and Boone Area chambers of commerce and hosted at the Grandview Ballroom in App State’s North End Zone Building.

Besides, with “kickoff” in the title of the event and the venue overlooking the region’s premier athletic facility, it certainly sounds sporting. More than 300 local business, civic and government leaders were in attendance and reveled in the food and information.

Nationwide, housing is already in a recession and softness may be just around the corner for the rest of the economy. Those were among the conclusions of North Carolina economist and professor at Appalachian State, Dr. Harry Davis.

Davis noted that since World War II the U.S. has seen 12 recessions with an average duration of about 10 months. He reported that in 2022, the economy grew about two percent, maybe as much as 2.5 percent when the numbers finally come out for the fourth quarter. He suggested that is pretty good performance as a follow-up to the post-COVID-19 growth of 5.7 percent in 2021, which he reported was the best annual growth rate in 40 years.

The longtime economist for the North Carolina Bankers Association said there have only been two real outliers since WWII in terms of the length of a recession, reminding listeners of the 1973-75 recession and what he termed, “the 2008 Great Recession.”

Davis expects the next recession to begin toward the end of 2023 and be relatively mild but, he said, North Carolina should be fairly well insulated because of the state’s strong business climate, population growth, and because the state government has what he termed a “rainy day fund” that will allow the government to operate without significant budget cutbacks.

One of the more interesting tidbits of Davis’ report was that some 350,000 factory jobs will be “reshored” to the U.S. because higher labor costs in China and other countries, as well as higher transportation costs are making offshore manufacturing less attractive to U.S. companies. He stated that he is already aware of both textile and furniture companies in North Carolina bringing operations home, as well as new startups in those industries.

Davis opened some eyes among the small business owners in the audience when he stated that the government is no longer setting the minimum wage for U.S. workers.

“The federal minimum wage rate is at $7.25 per hour, but businesses are not going to wait around for Congress to do anything, so they just do it themselves. Walmart, Amazon, Starbucks, Target and other big companies are now setting the minimum wage,” he said, adding that small businesses are going to have to follow suit in order to recruit and retain employees, even if it is a harsh reality.

Davis’ analysis included a note that, nationwide, there is a shortage of some 5 million housing units.

“What does that mean if you own a house? It means that every night while you are watching TV your house is going up in value four or five hundred bucks a day! Where else could that happen but in this country,” he said. “There is almost no way you can lose money in real estate, in any market, provided you are going to be in there for awhile because there is such a dearth of supply.”

Largely because of rising construction costs, Davis said that housing starts fell about 25 percent, the first decline in housing starts since 2009.

Davis suggested that with an unemployment rate, nationwide, of 3.5 percent, “We can’t be in a recession. If that is a recession, let’s stay in a recession!”

He reported that last year the U.S. created 4.5 million new jobs, the second most in history. The most was in 2021: 6.1 million new jobs. He added that there are about 10.5 million unfilled jobs in the U.S, saying that the number has “bounced around” between 10 million and 11 million ever since the pandemic.

Davis pointed out that the labor participation rate continues to decline, mostly, because many of the Baby Boomers are getting out of the labor force with retirement. Another factor, he said, is that the costs of child care and elder care are skyrocketing, implying that one or the other of previously employed parents are finding it more attractive to stay home.

Dr. Davis noted that the inflation rate is coming down, now to about 6 percent after reaching 9 percent last year. He added that inflation rates of food costs and housing rents remain stubbornly higher, but are still edging down now.

In 2021, Davis said, the Federal Reserve pumped a lot of money into the economy to provide liquidity. “They pushed the pedal to the metal and I think they overdid it,” said Davis. “Then they took their foot off the gas and pushed the brake to the metal. They went from one extreme to the other extreme and that is where we are today. I think they are close to finishing. I wish they would stop raising rates altogether.”

Turning to Watauga County and North Carolina, Davis reported that North Carolina remains stronger than most of the rest of the country because of the tremendous population growth the state has seen. He stated that a net of approximately 900,000 people were added to the population between the 2010 census and the 2020 census.

“It is not because of birth rates,” Davis said, “but because people are immigrating to North Carolina.”

He did point out the unevenness of population growth in the state, which has 50 chartered counties.

“Fifty counties lost population during that time and 50 counties gained,” said Davis. “Unfortunately, the 50 counties that lost population were the 50 counties with the least amount of population to begin with.”

He concluded that the disparity between rural and urban areas only gets worse every year.

Davis reported that in everybody’s ratings, North Carolina is in the “top 5” states for business and some have even rated NC as No. 1. He offered the reasons as low taxes (corporate and individual), a great education system with good community colleges, and the state pension plan is around 86 percent funded. “We also have a great rainy day fund with hundreds of millions of dollars in it,” Davis said. “We can withstand a recession much better now than we could in 2008.”

Davis added that the state is also starting to get “mega deals” of more than one billion dollars in corporate investments.

“With these businesses coming, they are going to need workers,” Davis pointed out. “Our biggest problem is going to be turning out workers with the correct skills to match up with those businesses. We need the educational system to look toward what these new businesses will need.”

Watauga County is the only county among the nine contiguous counties that is seeing meaningful population growth, Davis said. “Only one other of those counties has seen population growth in the last 10 years, and it grew by nine people. Everybody else is losing population in this corner of the state, so we are very lucky to have what we’ve got.”

By David Rogers. MECHANICSVILLE, Va. — Blowing Rock’s On/ZAP Endurance head coach Pete Rea started looking for a ride to New South Wales, Australia on Jan. 21. That’s because one of his veteran team members, Andrew Colley, placed second in USA Track & Field’s National Cross Country Championships staged at Pole Green Park in Mechanicsville, Va., near Richmond — and just four seconds behind unattached Colorado athlete, Emmanuel Bor.

The top six finishers qualify to represent the United States in the 2023 World Cross Country Championships, scheduled for Feb. 18 in Bathurst, New South Wales, Australia, northwest of Sydney.

At the start, 103 of America’s most elite distance runners launched themselves onto the course, several unattached but others representing professional race teams with shoe company sponsors like On/ZAP Endurance, as well as teams from branches of the U.S. military services. various colleges and universities, and city-based running teams.

The list of military services included U.S. Army, U.S. Air Force, U.S. Coast Guard, U.S. Marine Corps., and the U.S. Navy. Colleges and universities represented included the likes of Oklahoma State, Villanova, Minnesota, Elon and College of Charleston. Shoe company and athletic apparel teams, in addition to the On/ZAP Endurance entries, include Nike, Under Armour, Saucony, addidas, Brooks and ASICS. A number of city-based track and running clubs were also represented from states all across the country.

On/ZAP Endurance was also represented in Mechanicsville by Ryan Ford, who finished 12th in the 10,000 meter race, among the nation’s most elite harriers.

“The course in Pole Green Park is very interesting,” said Rea in speaking with High Country Sports after the race. “It is a 2k circuit and the competitors go around five times to make their 10k distance. It is relatively flat, with little in the way of elevation changes. Nice course, really.”

For Colley, the Jan. 21 race was a homecoming of sorts. He grew up in historic Williamsburg, Va., roughly 50 miles east of Mechanicsville, so among the Saturday spectators were a large number of Colley family members, childhood friends, and other well-wishers.

For most of the 10k distance, there was a lead pack of some two dozen runners within 10 seconds of each other. Bor took the lead at 3k and kept it to the finish, although a host of runners were always within shouting distance.

At the 1k marker, Colley and Ford were running side by side, tied for 9th place in the lead pack with Bor and Anthony Rotich (Nike/U.S. Army) and Thomas Slattery (U.S. Coast Guard). They were less than three seconds off the leader, Reid Buchanan, an unattached runner from California. Among the leaders, in third place at that point, was distance running veteran Jared Ward, a member of the 2016 U.S. Olympic team in the marathon after placing third in Los Angeles. Ward was running for the Saucony shoe company.

At the 2k mark, the leaders had shuffled around a bit, but there were still 41 athletes inside five seconds of the pack leader, Kirubel Erassa, an unattached entry from Indiana. All-Army team members were in 2nd place and tied for 4th, while ZAP’s Ford moved up a couple of places to 6th, tied with Bor, and Colley crossed the line in 15th, but still within just one second of the front.

As the runners crossed the 3k mark, Bor took the lead with still 102 athletes in the running. Colley was less than two seconds back, in 6th, while Ford dropped to 12th. He was still just 2.2 seconds behind the leader.

Bor still led at 4k, but distance running veteran Sam Chelanga of the All-Army team had moved into second place, nipping at Bor’s heels. Colley was only a second and half back, in 7th, while Ford was in 13th, still just over three seconds behind first place.

At the 5k halfway point, 102 runners were still on the course, with only 31 still in any kind of realistic contention some 37 seconds behind Bor. Another All-Army team member, Leonard Korir had moved into second place but was now 2.7 seconds behind Bor and leading a pack within five seconds of Bor. That pack included Colley in 7th and Ford, in 13th.

When the runners reached 6k, Bor had increased his lead to more than five seconds ahead of second place, now held by his younger brother Hillary Bor. Both are Kenyan-born but attended American universities, Emmanuel competing for University of Alabama and Hillary for Iowa State. At this point in the race, Colley was just one second behind Hillary Bor, in 9th, and Ford was still in the hunt, at No. 13.

At 7k, the Bor brothers still headed the field with Emmanuel now 11 seconds ahead of his brother. Nike/U.S. Army’s Rotich had moved back up the leaderboard and Colley was tied with Rotich and unattached Utah runner Dillon Maggard in third. Ford was less than a second further back, tied for 10th with Chelanga, who had also slipped back but still a member of the lead pack.

At 8k, Colley edged ahead of Hillary Bor and the Army’s Korir into second place, but now 12 seconds behind Emmanuel Bor. Ford four seconds slower at this point, by himself at No. 11. Newcomers among the leaders were Abbabiya Simbassa (7th), representing Under Armour, and Zachery Panning (9th) of the Hansons-Brooks Distance Project.

Between the 8k and 9k marks, Colley ran a blistering 2:52.2 leg and began to reel in the older Bor brother. Colley’s effort allowed him to slip into second place for the first time, narrowing the deficit to just under 8 seconds. Ford stayed at No. 11, but did not keep up with the lead group. At this point he was 20 seconds off the lead pace, but almost five seconds ahead of the 12th place runner.

As if Colley’s next to last 1,000 meters, between 8k and 9k, was not fast enough, the veteran ZAP runner gained another five seconds on the leader, covering the last 1,000 meters in 2:40.5 to finish the race as the runner-up and a full second ahead of Rotich (No. 3) and Korir (No. 4).

The now 31-yearold Colley was a highly decorated high school (Jamestown High School, Williamsburg, Va.) and collegiate track and cross country athlete competing for North Carolina State University. At NC State, he was a 3-time All-American in cross country (2011, 2012, and 2013) and the Atlantic Coast Conference “Performer of the Year” in both 2012 and 2013. In track, he was a 4-time All-American focused on running at the 5,000 meters’ distance.

He seemed destined for good things after joining the ZAP team and earning a spot on the 2015 U.S. team competing in the World Cross Country Championships in Guiyang, China, but a string of injuries followed. He is now the healthiest he has been in more than five years and, he said in a post-race interview that he now has had a good six months of solid training leading up to the Jan. 21 race.

“I am really proud of Andrew,” Rea shared with High Country Sports. “He is not just very talented, but has endured a lot and worked hard to overcome those challenges. He is a terrific team guy and will prove to be a great resource for the growing number of younger athletes competing for ZAP Endurance.”

By David Rogers. BLACKSBURG, Va. — His time was roughly two seconds slower than his personal best of a year ago, but ZAP Endurance team member Dan Schaffer’s time of 3:59.60 was the fastest of a fast field on Jan. 20 in the 1 Mile Run event of the Hokie Invitational.

Schaffer’s personal best at the distance indoors is a sizzling 3:57.47, established at the Boston University Last Chance meet on Feb. 27, 2022, but in Blacksburg on Friday he was one of only two athletes earning sub-4 minute times. Second place went to University of North Carolina sophomore Ethan Strand (3:59.83). A pair of North Carolina State juniors captured the third and fourth places, Ian Harrison (4:01.09) and Brett Gardner (4:01.33).

Trailing Strand and Penn State’s Drew Maher for most of the race, Schaffer used a strong finishing kick to overtake the Tar Heel athlete in the last two laps, while Maher dropped out with three laps to go on the 8-lap indoor track.

Schaffer was a highly decorated track star at both indoor and outdoor distances in both high school and college. He competed for Binghamton University and, after graduation last year, joined the ZAP Endurance team in the late summer and will primarily focus on distances from 5,000 meters to 10,000 meters, according to his comments in an interview with High Country Sports in September.