By David Rogers. BOONE, N.C. — An old adage says, “Statistics don’t lie” — but maybe football game statistics lie, after all.

BONUS PHOTOS at bottom of article

Statistics lie, after all? That might be the only way to explain Watauga varsity football’s 31-28 win over Sun Valley in Round 4 of the NCHSAA 6A state playoffs, on Nov. 28. Or was it home field advantage in Jack Groce Stadium, in sub-30 degree temperatures? Divine intervention?

At the very least, it was as improbable a gridiron victory that anyone could have imagined, statistically speaking.

Consider:

• Sun Valley outgained Watauga, 363 total yards of offense vs. 319 for the Pioneers.
• The visiting Spartans ran 77 offensive plays vs. just 33 for the host Pioneers.
• SV had possession of the ball for 29:38 compared to just 18:22 for Watauga.
• Sun Valley had a +2 advantage in takeaways for the game. The Spartans suffered just one turnover (a pass INT that all but ended the game) but benefited from two Watauga INTs and one lost fumble.
• Watauga recorded seven penalties, including five pre-snap, “false start” infractions that could well have disrupted offensive possessions.
• Sun Valley limited the Pioneers’ coveted rushing attack to just 74 yards on 21 carries, and that was at minus-3 yards for the entire first half.

Coming into the game, MaxPreps.com had No. 5-seeded Sun Valley ranked as No. 1 team in North Carolina’s 6A classification “power rankings,” thanks to a 9-3 record and the highest rated “strength of schedule” among the 57 teams competing at the 6A level. The 12-0 Pioneers were No. 2 in the power rankings, but with a relatively weak strength of schedule, overall.

At least some of Watauga’s upset is explained by one of head coach Ryan Habich’s favorite phrases, “complementary football,” with contributions from all three units: offense, defense and special teams. Beyond the X’s and O’s and the scheming, said Habich after the game, it comes down to execution by the players on the field.

“Big-time players make big-time plays,” noted Habich.

And the Pioneers got big-time plays aplenty from all three units on Nov. 28 — and it all started from the get-go, after Sun Valley won the coin toss and elected to defer, meaning they would kickoff to the Pioneers:

• SPECIAL TEAMS: With some key blocks from his special teams comrades, wide receiver Nyle Peays collected the Spartans’ opening kickoff at his own 18-yard line, then wove his way through the center of Sun Valley’s coverage to outsprint all defenders, an 82-yard kickoff return for a touchdown. Head coach Ryan Habich said later, “That was huge because it established momentum.”
• DEFENSE: On Sun Valley’s opening drive, behind the hard running of running back Zach Cullen, the Spartans advanced the ball into Watauga territory but faced an increasingly stingy Pioneer defense. On 4th-and-1 from the WAT 41 yard-line, Pioneer defenders Crue Stoddard and Bowen Mayo “stood up” Cullen for no gain, giving the ball back to Watauga with reasonably good field position.
• DEFENSE and SPECIAL TEAMS: After Sun Valley tied the game at 7-7 on a balanced drive that featured runs by Cullen and key pass completions from QB Noah Lineberry to three different receivers, on their next possession the Spartans threatened to go ahead, moving the ball down to the Pioneers’ 12-yard line. But on 3rd-and-8, Watauga defensive back Kyle Williams broke up a Lineberry pass to SV wide receiver Thanasi Papazis. Sun Valley opted for a short, 26-yard field goal attempt — but pressure from Watauga’s Thomas Dieters, Aidan Plemons and Evan Burroughs helped Sun Valley kicker Braden Carr push the ball just outside the posts.
• OFFENSE: It didn’t take long for Watauga to take advantage as the first quarter was winding down. After the missed field goal, Watauga had the ball at their own 20-yard line — but a false start penalty moved them back to their own 15. No matter, said QB Cade Keller, who on the first play found wide receiver Nyle Peays in the left flat and the speedy senior turned upfield to outrace the only Spartan defender with a glimmer of a chance to stop him. One last desperate lunge by the DB nicked the back of Peays’ heel, but he stepped out of it and finished his race to the goal line.
• OFFENSE: After a Watauga fumble was recovered by Sun Valley’s Andrew Doody, the Spartans made short work of the good field position to score a TD and knot the game at 14-14. But in response, it took Keller & Co. just three plays to push the home team back to the lead, 21-14. First, Keller found Peays for a 15-yard gain to near midfield. Two plays later, Keller found Bowen Mayo for a 57-yard pass-catch-and-run to TD paydirt.
• DEFENSE: Sun Valley tied the game before halftime, 21-21, then took the second half kickoff 67 yards in 10 plays with a methodical drive that could well have spelled doom for the Pioneers, facing a 28-21 deficit and potential loss of momentum. Rather than allow Sun Valley to establish dominance, however, the Pioneers’ defense buckled down and forced a three-and-out possession by the Spartans, then another 5-play stoppage to force an SV punt. Watauga effectively put the brakes on Sun Valley’s Cullen, with key stops by Everett Gryder, Crue Stoddard, Nyle Peays, Bowen Mayo and Brady Lindenmuth — and critical “QB hurries” with pressure on Lineberry from Matthew Leon and Lindenmuth.
• OFFENSE and SPECIAL TEAMS: Suddenly, Watauga’s offense began to look more like the opportunistic, if grinding juggernaut that Pioneer fans have come to expect. Evan Burroughs rushed around the perimeter for 17 yards. Keller completed a 4-yard pass to Mayo before manufacturing a 17-yard “keeper”. Keller to Burroughs for another 14 yards, then to Burroughs for 13 yards as the 4th quarter got underway. Matthew Leon punched ahead for three yards — then Keller found an open Bowen Mayo in the left corner of the end zone for a 12-yard TD. On the PAT, Watauga committed another “false start” penalty, making placekicker Miller Hankins’ PAT attempt more of a field goal. But with a snap-place-boot (and solid line play to protect the kicker), Hankins’s kick was straight and true to tie the game at 28-28. Could Sun Valley respond?
• DEFENSE: Nope. In three plays, the Spartans were able to manage just one yard before punting. Crue Stoddard, Bowen Mayo and John Wilson Mills all figured prominently in the three-and-out.
• OFFENSE and SPECIAL TEAMS: Getting possession of the ball at their own 46, the Pioneers went to work with good field position. Keller mixed up a balanced attack of QB keepers, rushes by Burroughs, and a 20-yard pass to Matthew Leon coming out of the backfield before the drive stalled at the Sun Valley 20-yard line. In only his second field goal attempt of the season, Miller Hankins drove the 37-yarder right down the middle for a field goal that might have been good from 50 yards.  The kick pushed Watauga back into the lead, 31-28 — but there was just over five minutes remaining on the game clock and Sun Valley was getting possession. A field goal would tie the game, but a time-consuming TD drive could well win it for the visitors.
• DEFENSE and DEFENSE: There is no obvious explanation as to why Sun Valley moved away from the punishing rushing attack featuring Zach Cullen to advance the ball and take time off the clock.  Instead, the Spartans chose to pass the ball and were initially successful with Lineberry-to-Doody completions for 7 and 25 yards. But inside Watauga territory, the Watauga defense stiffened with good defensive back play from Nyle Peays, Evan Burroughs, Everett Gryder and Bowen Mayo to thwart Lineberry passes. When Sun Valley forced a Watauga 3-and-out, the Spartans got the ball back for one final attempt to tie the game or score, with 1:43 left on the clock. It was enough time, but after advancing the ball into Watauga territory, Lineberry’s long pass down the middle of the field was intercepted by the Pioneers’ Everett Gryder at his own 30. With just 50 seconds remaining on the game clock, Watauga’s 31-28 victory was all but in hand, advancing the Pioneers to the 6A West championship game — the North Carolina 6A semifinals — on Dec. 5.

The Series: Bowen Mayo (8) TD Catch-and-Run

“It is the grit and determination of this team,” said Habich. “We knew it was going to be a battle and the weather out there is cold. We had the pre-snap penalties, with the offensive line flinching and all that. We had the turnovers, but they weren’t big turnovers. We flipped the field position a little bit with those long (pass interceptions). But our defense… We played complementary football. Ok, we turned the ball over but our defense finds a way to get a stop and we get the ball back.

“The biggest thing,” Habich continued, “is what happens after a turnover. How do you respond? Our guys responded in the right way. Our kids stayed in the fight. You keep attacking and it starts in August. You attack every challenge and adversity with a growth mindset. That’s what this team did tonight to beat a very good football team in Sun Valley.

“A lot of people may not realize how good Sun Valley is,” added Habich. “They are a very good football team, with a lot of player that were 3-year starters on varsity. We might have been the No. 1 seed in the 6A West, but Sun Valley was the No. 1 team in the power rankings that we just knocked off, tonight.”

Speaking about the defensive adjustments at halftime, Habich was candid.

“Our defensive coaches made some good adjustments,” said Habich. “We are undersized up front a little bit, but the way we slant our line and bring pressure differently, with different angles. Our coaches did a really good job with that. So many of our guys play both ways, offense and defense, so really the only opportunity we have to make adjustments is at halftime.”

With the No. 1 seed, Watauga will host the 6A West championship game against No. 2 seeded Northern Guilford (Greensboro), which defeated No. 3 Ashbrook (Gastonia), 39-14, to advance.

SCORING SUMMARY

• • Q1 – WAT: Nyle Peays, 82-yard return for TD on opening kickoff. Miller Hankins PAT is good. WAT 7, SV 0
  • Q1 – SV: Zach Cullen, 14-yard run for TD. Braden Carr PAT kick is good. WAT 7, SV 7
  • Q1 – WAT: Nyle Peays, 85 yard TD pass-catch-run from Cade Keller.  Miller Hankins PAT kick is good. WAT 14, SV 7
  • Q2 – SV: Joshua Bell, 1-yard TD run. Braden Carr PAT kick is good. WAT 14, SV 14
  • Q2 – WAT: Bowen Mayo, 57 yard TD pass-catch-run from Cade Keller. Miller Hankins PAT kick is good. WAT 21, SV 14
  • Q2 – SV: Zach Cullen, 4-yard TD run. Braden Carr PAT kick is good. WAT 21, SV 21
  • Q3 – SV: Thanasi, Papazis, 13-yard TD pass from Noah Lineberry. Braden Carr PAT kick is good. WAT 21, SV 28
  • Q4 – WAT: Bowen Mayo, 12 yard TD pass from Cade Keller. Miller Hankins PAT kick is good. WAT 28, SV 28
  • Q4 – WAT: Miller Hankins, 37-yard field goal. WAT 31, SV 28

SELECTED TEAM STATS

• • Total Offense, Yards: SV 363, WAT 319
  • First Downs: SV 22, WAT 12
  • Net Yards Rushing: SV 206, WAT 74
  • Net Yards Passing: SV 157, WAT 245
  • Turnovers
    • Interceptions: SV 1, WAT 2
    • Fumbles Lost: SV 0, WAT 1
  • Penalties-Yards: SV 3-15, WAT 7-40
  • Time of Possession: SV 29:38, WAT 18:22
  • 3rd Down Conversions: SV 6 of 16, WAT 1 of 6
  • 4th Down Conversions: SV 3 of 5, WAT 0 of 2

INDIVIDUAL OFFENSIVE STATS

Passing

• • WAT – Cade Keller: completed 14 of 22, 3 TDs, 2 INTs
  • SV – Noah Lineberry: completed 17 of 30, 1 TD, 1 INT

Receiving

• • WAT – Nyle Peays: 2 receptions for 100 yards, 1 TD
  • SV – Andrew Doody: 9 receptions for 82 yards
  • WAT – Bowen Mayo: 4 receptions for 81 yards, 2 TDs
  • WAT – Evan Burroughs: 7 receptions for 44 yards
  • SV – Thanasi Papazis: 3 receptions for 36 yards, 1 TD
  • SV – Zach Cullen: 2 receptions for 28 yards
  • WAT – Matthew Leon: 1 reception for 20 yards
  • SV – Chris Stafford: 2 receptions for 12 yards

Rushing

• • SV – Zach Cullen: 37 carries for 168 yards, 2 TDs
  • WAT – Cade Keller: 5 carries for 37 yards
  • WAT – Evan Burroughs: 5 carries for 24 yards
  • SV – Joshua Bell: 6 carries for 24 yards, 1 TD
  • WAT – Matthew Leon: 9 carries for 15 yards
  • SV – Noah Lineberry: 2 carries for 11 yards

DEFENSIVE HIGHLIGHTS

• • SV – Brandon Creech: 7 tackles
  • SV – Xavier Flowe: 6 tackles, tackle for loss (TFL)
  • SV – Malachi Mays: 6 tackles, TFL
  • SV – Zach Cullen: 5 tackles, TFL
  • SV – Thanasi Papazis, 4 tackles, 1 pass INT
  • SV – Andrew Doody: 2 tackles, 1 fumble recovery, 1 pass breakup
  • SV – Joseph Jones: 1 tackle, 1 pass INT
  • SV – Joshua Bell: 1 tackles,TFL
  • WAT – Everett Gryder: 15 tackles, 1 pass INT, 1 pass breakup, 1 QB hurry
  • WAT – John Wilson Mills: 12 tackles, 2 QB hurries
  • WAT – Bowen Mayo: 11 tackles, 2 TFLs, 1 pass breakup
  • WAT – Thomas Deiters: 11 tackles. TFL
  • WAT – Crue Stoddard: 10 tackles, TFL, QB hurry
  • WAT – Matthew Leon: 6 tackles, TFL, QB hurry
  • WAT – Nyle Peays: 6 tackles, pass breakup
  • WAT – Brady Lindenmuth: 6 tackles, pass breakup, QB hurry
  • WAT – Kyle Williams: 3 tackles, TFL, pass breakup
  • WAT – Aiden Plemons: 4 tackles
  • WAT – Evan Burroughs: 1 tackle, pass breakup

BONUS PHOTOS

All images captured by Jared Everett, processed by David Rogers for High Country Sports