Few surprises, many good picks for Round 1 of NFL Draft

By David Rogers. BOONE, N.C. — I have studied a great many of the prospects and these are my candid notes about how the 2023 NFL Draft developed in the April 27 Round 1.

Specific random notes:

• Given how much the NFL values the passing offense, it was surprising to see two RBs (Bijon Robinson at No. 8 Atlanta and Jahmyr Gibbs at No. 12 by Detroit) drafted before the first wide receiver (Seattle’s pick of Jaxson Smith-Njiba at No. 20)
• Before the draft, there was a lot of speculation that as many as five QBs could go in Round 1. That didn’t happen, with Kentucky’s Will Levis and Tennessee’s Hendon Hooker now having to wait for Round 2, possibly Round 3.
• Biggest disappointments as far as dropping out of the first round goes, to my thinking, were QB Will Levis (Kentucky), TE Michael Mayer (Notre Dame), and CB Joey Porter, Jr. (Penn State).

My best Round 1 drafts by a team:

• Indianapolis Colts for drafting QB Anthony Richardson, who I predict will become the best QB out of this class.
• Houston Texans by not only getting their QB in CJ Stroud at No. 2, but also traded up to No. 2 to pick one of the outstanding defensive players in Will Anderson, Jr.
• Atlanta Falcons for surprising everyone by selecting Bijon Robinson, RB, at No. 8.
• Philadelphia Eagles, who didn’t have too many obvious needs except maybe at RB after losing Miles Sanders to the Panthers, who bolstered their defense by snatching up two Georgia Bulldogs who fell further than expected, DT Jalen Carter and OLB Nolan Smith.
• Washington Commanders drafting Emmanuel Forbes, DB, out of Mississippi State.

The Draft Picks

1. Carolina Panthers drafted Bryce Young, QB, from the University of Alabama. I understand the pick and all of the hoopla around a very good college player and Heisman Trophy winner. He may very well prove to be the best Day 1 NFL starter in this draft class, but I do not believe he is the best long-term solution at the position. I watched an hour of highlight films on each of the purported top three players: Young, C.J. Stroud (Ohio State) and Anthony Richardson (Florida). My pick after watching the tape and considering the physical and mental characteristics? Richardson. I understand there is less of a body of work to study, which made it hard to take a guy this high, but I believe in the guy.
2. Houston Texans drafted C.J. Stroud, QB, from Ohio State. Per my earlier comments, Stroud would have been my second QB pick, if Richardson was off the board. A big, strong, passer who didn’t have too many needs to improvise behind OSU’s offensive line, but he has that ability, as he showed against the University of Georgia. The Texans passed on Richardson, but they got a very good one in Stroud and someone to build around.
3. The first surprise of the night, Arizona traded the No. 3 pick to the Houston Texans who selected Will Anderson, Jr., LB, from the University of Alabama. No argument here and a prediction: within three years, the Houston Texans will go deep into the playoffs.
4. Indianapolis Colts drafted Anthony Richardson, QB, from the University of Florida. In my opinion, Indy stole the crown jewel of the 2023 NFL Draft. My impressions after watching the tape, the University of Florida product is Cam Newton, Lamar Jackson, Josh Allen and Justin Herbert all rolled into one. He has been downgraded by the so-called experts because of his alleged inaccuracy as a passer, but if you look at the tape there are several passes last season that were on the money but muffed by the intended receiver. He has the size, athleticism and instincts to be great. And, for the local crowd of football fans, at 4.40 he is almost as fast as former App State wide receiver Jalen Virgil (4.37).
5. The Seattle Seahawks drafted Devon Witherspoon, CB, from the University of Illinois. The Illini have not done much in college football for several years now, but Witherspoon is a consensus All-American and the highest rated cornerback on most analysts’ lists. Pete Carroll values defense and this could prove to be a terrific selection.
6. Arizona Cardinals drafted Paris Johnson, Jr., OT, from Ohio State. This makes a lot of sense because they need not just more offensive line protection for franchise QB Kyler Murray, but players that can open space and create opportunities.
7. Las Vegas Raiders drafted Tyree Wilson, EDGE, from Texas Tech. If this team was still in Oakland, I could see the metal mouths and chain wearers going absolutely crazy. Wilson is really good at bringing pressure at the opposing QBs. I know they signed Jimmy Garropolo to play QB and all, but [a] they could easily have used some top drawer QB talent to develop and [b] any QB — as well as running back Josh Jacobs — could use some offensive line help.
8. Atlanta Falcons drafted Bijon Robinson, RB, from the University of Texas. For many, this is a reach at this point in the draft because the NFL general style of play is pivoting more to the passing game. And yet, I think this is a terrific pick for the Falcons because Robinson is arguably a generational talent. The Falcons have good talents in Tyler Allgeier and an explosive, but somewhat aging Cordarrelle Patterson (32), but the Falcons were among the leaders in rushing the football last year and a good investment in running backs makes sense and they got among the best to ever come out of college.
9. Philadelphia Eagles drafted Jalen Carter, DT, from the University of Georgia. Carter’s stock dropped a little because of some off-field issues that raised character concerns, but he is a terrific defensive presence. From a strictly football perspective, I would like to see a higher level of fitness. That said, he is a strong inside presence. The Eagles were a top-ranked defensive team on their way to winning the Super Bowl this past season. The added strength to an already strong unit. Having lost Miles Sanders, they might have easily drafted a running back as a greater need, but Robinson is probably the only RB to consider taking this high. With Robinson unavailable, picking Carter is a good pick for the Eagles.
10. Chicago Bears drafted Darnell Wright, OT, from the University of Tennessee. The Volunteers had a pretty explosive offense last season and their offensive line performance is a good reason. The Bears have needed better protection and opportunity creation for their running backs as well as franchise QB Justin Fields. This was a good pick that addressed an important need.
11. Tennessee Titans drafted Peter Skoronski, OL, from Northwestern University. The Titans have several needs including potentially at QB, WR and OL. They addressed the need at OL with a versatile guy who could play guard or tackle. They don’t have a lot of help behind Derrick Henry at RB, so that could have been a consideration, but Henry and QB Ryan Tannehill probably appreciate the selection as much as anyone else on the planet.
12. Detroit Lions drafted Jahmyr Gibbs, RB, University of Alabama. This was probably the second true surprise of the night because most observers didn’t expect two RBs to go in the first dozen selections. There is no question, though, that Gibbs is a talented RB with many of the same talent characteristics and versatility of guys like former Panther and current San Francisco 49er Christian McCaffrey. The Lions could also have done well in drafting a WR with the suspension of Jameson Williams for betting on football, we understand, but RB makes sense because D’Andre Swift has had injury problems and David Montgomery coming over from the Bears may not provide the best total depth.
13. Green Bay Packers drafted Lukas Van Ness, EDGE, from the University of Iowa. Defensive needs abound. The pick makes sense.
14. Pittsburgh Steelers acquired the pick from the New England Patriots and drafted Broderick Jones, OT, from the University of Florida. Terrific pick in helping out QB Kenny Pickett and the offense’s passing attack with protection. Very strong and a sub-5.0 40-yard dash time. That is rare for a 6-5, 311 lb. man.
15. New York Jets drafted Will McDonald IV, LB, from Iowa State. Watching tape on McDonald, impressed with his quickness and resilience after contact. The Jets appear to be turning around the team with the trade for QB Aaron Rodgers and strengthening the defense is just another positive step.
16. Washington Commanders drafted Emmanuel Forbes, DB, from Mississippi State. Cornerback was one of the greatest pre-draft needs. Head coach Ron Rivera is known for valuing defense, defense, and defense, so getting one of the best defensive backs in the draft follows. New offensive coordinator and assistant head coach Eric Bienemy might have wanted to add someone on the offensive side,
17. The New England Patriots drafted Christian Gonzalez, CB, the University of Oregon. Arguably, the Patriots top two needs were offensive line help and cornerback. Gonzalez has good burst and great length. Very versatile, so this fills a need. Personally, I am not impressed with the Patriots’ QB room, so they could have gone that way, too, although WR is a greater need — a better offensive weapon for whoever plays QB (I like Zappe over Jones, but they have a bigger investment in Jones so will give him every shot).
18. Detroit Lions drafted Jack Campbell, ILB, from the University of Iowa. For a big guy, 6-4+, 249 lbs., Campbell’s 4.65 40-yard dash time is pretty impressive.  The Lions continue to build on both sides of the ball.
19. Tampa Bay Buccaneers drafted Calijah Kancey, DT, from the University of Pittsburgh. I am a little surprised that Tampa Bay did not go for Will Levis, the highly rated QB from Kentucky, to fill out the depth chart behind Baker Mayfield and Kyle Trask, but strengthening their defensive interior plugs another need. Levis has the potential to be a quality starter, so it is a little surprising to see the former KY Wildcat drop further than this.
20. Seattle Seahawks drafted Jaxon Smith-Njigba, WR, from Ohio State. Geno Smith, the Seahawks’ QB, must be grinning about this selection in his team’s adding another weapon to his WR arsenal, which also includes DK Metcalf and Tyler Lockett. The former Buckeye WR follows a long line of high quality wide receivers coming out of the school in recent years.
21. Los Angeles Chargers drafted Quentin Johnston, WR, from TCU. Both of the Chargers’ terrific veterans, Mike Williams and Kenan Allen, have had injury problems in recent years and, arguably, are getting long in the tooth as wide receivers go. Adding Johnston to give QB Justin Herbert another reliable target makes sense. Johnston is taller than many WRs (6-3, 208 lbs.) and has solid 40-yard speed. A deep threat with a good radius for catching 50-50 balls.
22. Baltimore Ravens drafted Zay Flowers, WR, from Boston College. A little small, but an electric playmaker and Baltimore needs more help at the position. After re-signing QB Lamar Jackson, giving him more offensive weapons is a really good call. Flowers reminds me of Tyreek Hill.
23. Minnesota Vikings drafted Jordan Addison, WR, from the University of Southern California.  The Vikings need help in the defensive secondary, where they were roasted last year (31st in total yards given up last season), but with Adam Thielen going to the Panthers, the team needs a WR complement to take some pressure off of emerging superstar Justin Jefferson. Addison is that guy. The Vikings also need to look for some QB depth behind Kirk Cousins.
24. New York Giants drafted Deonte Banks, CB, from the University of Maryland. One of several quality cornerbacks in this year’s draft. Good size and speed and everything a defensive coordinator likes to have in covering WRs and TEs.
25. Buffalo Bills traded up for this pick and drafted Dalton Kincaid, TE, from the University of Utah. The first TE taken on the night, Kincaid has the skills and talent to really be a hybrid WR. Could prove a great complement to Stefon Diggs, Gabriel Davis, and Dawson Knox. Good pick.
26. Dallas Cowboys drafted Mazi Smith, DT, from the University of Michigan. With a prospective rushing orientation this next season according to various sources, drafting a tight end might have made as much sense here for the Cowboys. While Smith is not the highest rated DT on many boards, he is a quality player and will plug up the defensive interior.
27. Jackson Jaguars drafted Anton Harrison, OT, from Oklahoma. I like getting more protection for QB Trevor Lawrence. Harrison is the first Oklahoma player taken this year, which is a little unusual for one of the best college football programs in the country, historically. OT wasn’t the Jaguars’ greatest perceived need, but it is a smart selection.
28. Cincinnati Bengals drafted Myles Murphy, DE, from Clemson University. Cornerback, tight end, and offensive line might have been more serious needs, but Murphy is a quality pick and strengthens the Bengals’ perimeter.
29. New Orleans Saints drafted Bryan Bresee, DT, from Clemson University. Back to back defensive line selections from Clemson. Like the tape on Bresee, especially on run defense, will force offenses to attack the perimeter more often.
30. Philadelphia Eagles drafted Nolan Smith, LB, from the University of Georgia. This is the second Georgia Bulldogs defensive player taken by Philly in the first round and he runs 4.3 40-yard dash speed. Exciting pick for the Eagles because I didn’t expect Smith to drop this far.
31. Kansas City Chiefs drafted Felix Anudike=Uzomah, DE, from Kansas State. The Chiefs stayed in-state to bolster their defense, but I am a little surprised they didn’t go OL or WR, which on the surface are higher needs.